By Prof. Raymond Tanter, John Psarouthakis
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Extra info for Balancing in the Balkans
The curtain only fell when an ascendant coalition led by Moscow and Washington emerged in victory. The World War II destruction of Yugoslavia was a consequence of external forces. The post–Cold War breakup of that country was a result of internal implosion. In addition to the overwhelming imbalance in military capability in Germany’s favor, there also was an imbalance of resolve and interests. Hitler’s stronger determination gave him a tremendous advantage over his adversaries in London and Paris.
And, if there is a balance of power among them, diplomatic persuasion by external parties has a chance of gaining the compliance of the antagonists to a lasting peace. But the manner in which the Vance-Owen negotiations proceeded gave a clear indication of a preference for a local balance of power among the belligerents rather than a preponderance of outside power, which would have allowed coercive diplomacy to succeed. Consider the treatment of three local officials at the international bargaining table.
A war occurred in 1939 because the parties misjudged the consequences of their appeasement policy, which failed to prevent Nazi Germany from using its preponderance of power against smaller states. For one small state in southern Europe, Yugoslavia, failure to deter Hitler in 1939 caused a disaster two years later. This failure paved the way for future hostilities in the Balkans. Nazi Germany forced the Yugoslav army to surrender on April 17, 1941. Germany and Italy, the Axis powers, dismembered Yugoslavia.